Logon for submitting Predictions
The feedback methodology changed after A-ID = 728 (May 6 '98). Currently, a photograph of the A, V, or M target is randomly chosen from a growing collection of photos.
For each A-ID#, the stock market is used for establishing the three possible future events which are randomly associated with the AVM targets. And thus, the stock market's future behavior is used to actualize the AVM target.
The Stock Market and AVM Targets
Each AVM target is randomly associated with the change in the closing price of a specific stock over a specific future time period.
An example, with comments, will clarify the approach.
A-ID = 548
The AVM-ID number. Note that this ID# was the only "cue" provided. This is enough for intuition to operate.
Stock = Intel Corporation
The stock future prices are used to "randomly" choose the Animal, Vegetable, or Mineral nature of the target.
Start Date = 4/9/98
Predictions must be made before this date.
End Date = 4/14/98
The Change in Stock Price is determined from closing prices between the Start and End Dates.
Representative Price Change for Intel = 1.53
The Representative Price Change is used to create the three random choices for AVM. In this case:
Vegetable if the Change in Stock Price is UP more than 1.53,
Animal if the Change in Stock Price is DOWN more than 1.53,
Mineral if the Change in Stock Price is BETWEEN.
The actual change in Intel's Stock Price was UP 2.25 points, so the Target was Vegetable. The actual target was chosen after the outcome was determined on the End Date.
In addition to photographic feedback, analytical feedback is provided consisting of a summary of your trials, successes, and prediction percentile based on pure chance. Once your percentile exceeds 99%, you can reasonably begin evaluating whether you have an "edge" over pure-chance predictions of the future.
See here for technical details about the prediction percentile and edge compared to pure chance.