Applications: AVM Precognition Project: Summary of Results for Protocol-1

Successfully applying precognition to the stock market is the primary goal of the AVM Project.   P-I-A has completed its first formal online experiment where 7 participants were paid to submit 500 AVM predictions each.   The participants were free to use whatever protocol they preferred within the framework of the P-I-A Online Protocol-1.   The participants will all be referred to as viewers, since in all cases their objective is to successfully view the A, V, or M nature of a future photo-target identified with an AVM-ID number.

Here's a very brief summary of results, followed by some of the details:
      The group performance on 3,500 predictions (7 viewers doing 500 predictions each) was just about what you would expect based on chance.   There were two instances where the group produced a very high "prediction cluster", at the 99.4 percentile based on chance, and both of these predictions were successes.   Also, two viewers achieved the 99.8 percentile in their first 100 predictions during their dry-run period...was this "beginner's luck"?

AVM Protocol-1 for the Viewers

PIA believes that the essence of precognition is the ability of each viewer to establish communication between the subconscious and conscious aspects of his/her self.   Therefore, we rely on the viewers to nurture, improve, and ultimately develop these lines of communication.   We establish an overall protocol that provides a structure for submitting specific AVM Predictions.   These parameters for Protocol-1 were as follows:

Associated Investment Targets

While each of the 500 AVM targets were independent, they were randomly "associated" with Investment Targets in groups of 5.   The specifics are not known to any of the viewers.   An analyst may use these data to make investment decisions.   Here is a specific example:

Investment Target ID = 125 Will the change in the closing prices of stock XYZ* between the following StartDate and EndDate be Up more than delta points, Down more than delta points, or Near-Neutral (neither Up nor Down). StartDate for Stock Change = 3/23/00 EndDate for Stock Change = 3/24/00 delta (change in price for determining Up, Down, or Near-Neutral) = 0.953 points The Up, Down, Near-Neutral stock changes are randomly "associated" with the Animal, Vegetable, or Mineral nature of 5 AVM photo-targets.   To clarify this, here is the random association for this example: AVM_ID Up Down Near-Neutral 15065 Mineral Animal Vegetable 15068 Animal Vegetable Mineral 15069 Vegetable Animal Mineral 15071 Mineral Animal Vegetable 15074 Vegetable Mineral Animal Note that the AVM Target IDs are not sequential to increase the random nature of the associations. *The specific stock will not be indicated to assist our viewers.

So, the 500 predictions by each participant were associated with 100 Investment Targets.   And since we had 7 participants, there were generally 35 independent predictions associated with each Investment target.  

Investment decisions could thus be made based on the "clustering" of the group predictions.   By clustering, we mean an unusually high number of Up, Down, or Neutral "group predictions".   For example, the percentile associated with getting a cluster of 20 predictions to agree when there are a total of 35 predictions submitted is 99.4.   This was the most improbable clustering that occurred, and as you will see below, there were two examples.

Examples of Results

• Overall Group Results
        The overall performance of the group was only at the 36 percentile level.   This is not a significant result.
  
  Two features of the results are worth noting, and will be investigated further.   These are discussed below.

• "Clusters" with High Percentiles
        There were two group-prediction clusters where 20 out of 35 predictions agreed in Up, Down or Near-Neutral.   This level of clustering falls at the 99.4 percentile by chance.   What is particularly interesting, is that in both cases, the predictions were correct.   This supports the hypothesis that the most improbable clustering will be the most predictively accurate and not just caused by chance.

  The following table shows the Invest_ID number and related investment info including the actual Up, Down or Near-Neutral group-prediction, which was also the actualized result.
  

  Invest_ID	StartDate	EndDate	delta	Up, Down, or Neutral Cluster
  125	3/23/00	3/24/00	0.953	Down
  130	3/23/00	3/28/00	1.957	Neutral

  The following table shows the number of predictions in the cluster by viewer.   Remember that each viewer submitted 5 predictions for each Investment Target.
  

  User_ID	Invest_ID = 125	Invest_ID = 130
  1	2	3
  2	4	2
  3	4	2
  4	2	3
  5	3	3
  6	2	4
  7	3	3
  Total	20	20

  
  This example illustrates that predictions from all of the independent group members are often needed to get a very high percentile cluster.   Also, note that the viewers that did 4 correct out of 5 in one case did 2 correct out of 5 in the other.

• Two Viewers Showed Initial Percentiles of 99.8 on Their First 100 Predictions
        Five of the seven viewers participated in a series of "dry-run" predictions.   Two of them showed a 47% success rate (vs. 33% by chance) on the 100 predictions entered the first two days.   Feedback from the first day was available on day 3, and success rates then began to fall.   By chance, successfully predicting 47 out of 100 AVM targets put these viewers in the 99.8 percentile after the 100 prediction trials.   Their full percentile vs trials charts of 750 predictions follows:    
  Both of these viewers used the ideogram approach discussed in the previous section.   Did their percentiles fall because they saw their very positive feedback, or were they simply experiencing "beginner's luck" with this new protocol?   What is "beginner's luck"...we have much to learn.

We will continue to share information concerning our results as part of our educational mission.   We believe that precognition will be part of a paradigm shift to a new worldview where information about remote events (past, present and future) will be recognized as being available to trained viewers.   These viewers will become members of a new profession and integrated into our society.   We believe that the information concerning this paradigm shift should be made as public as possible to encourage the maximum participation...we are indeed all in this together, whether we know it or not.

Go to another section of this issue:
Physics: The SubConscious (SC) and the Self       Intuition: The SubConscious and an Ongoing Precognition Experiment