Applications:
Predicting the Future -
An Experimental Approach

The Stock Market and AVM Targets

Each AVM target is randomly associated with the change in the closing price of a specific stock over a specific future time period.  

An example, with comments, will clarify the approach.
A-ID = 548
      The AVM-ID number.    Note that this ID# was the only "cue" provided.   This is enough for intuition to operate.
Stock = Intel Corporation
      The stock future prices are used to "randomly" choose the Animal, Vegetable, or Mineral nature of the target.
Start Date = 4/9/98
      Predictions must be made before this date.
End Date = 4/14/98
      The Change in Stock Price is determined from closing prices between the Start and End Dates.
Representative Price Change for Intel = 1.53
      The Representative Price Change is used to create the three random choices for AVM.  In this case:
    Vegetable if the Change in Stock Price is UP more than 1.53,
    Animal if the Change in Stock Price is DOWN more than 1.53,
    Mineral if the Change in Stock Price is BETWEEN.

The actual change in Intel's Stock Price was UP 2.25 points, so the Target was Vegetable. The actual target was chosen after the outcome was determined on the End Date.



Two versions of the experiment are being conducted simultaneously.
1.  In the Stock Market approach, actual future daily closing stock prices are used.
2.  In the MISTIE (MInute Stock Trading for Intuition Evaluation) approach, a computerized simulation is used for generating simulated (not actual) closing stock prices every minute.  MISTIE will become available online in January, 1999

MISTIE is valuable for demonstrating the AVM methodology and for those who want immediate (almost) feedback.

Press the link below to begin with a logon.   The logon is necessary so your prediction record can be maintained and provided to you as part of your feedback. Only summary statistics will be made public.

Logon for submitting Predictions

Copyright 1998 by Physics-Intuition-Applications, Inc.