Protocol 5 is an Associative Remote Viewing approach that uses a consensus to arrive at a prediction for a future event. People either work alone or in small groups of 2 or 3. The predictions were based on a consensus involving a minimum of 2 predictions for the same future event. The future event was the change in closing price of a specific stock or index on the stock market. The details on Protocol 5 are here.
There were 26 "groups" submitting predictions. 21 of these were "groups of one" where one person submitted a minimum of 2 predictions before submitting a consensus prediction for the stock event. Sets of 10 stock event predictions were the basic unit established for statistical evaluation and for the paying of incentive fees. These fees were paid to groups achieving 7 or more successes out of 10 trials.
The following table shows the results of 95 sets of predictions in terms of the number of successes out of 10 trials. For example, in April 2001, there were a total of 7 sets submitted with 4 of those sets having 8 successful predictions. In May, there was one group who achieved a perfect score of 10 successes out of 10 trials.
Monthly Summary |
less than 7 out of 10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 9/10 | 10/10 | TOTALS |
Apr-01 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
May-01 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
Jun-01 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Jul-01 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Aug-01 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Sep-01 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
Oct-01 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Total Sets | 78 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 95 |
Protocol 5 was not designed as a scientific experiment, but we analyzed the data to see if we could gain some insights. Overall, it appears that we have the classical pattern of "beginners luck".
Our analysis focused on the probability of predicting multiple sets with 8 or more successful predictions. For one set, this probability according to chance is p = 0.054687. We use this p value because it is close to the 0.05 level often used for statistical significance. "8 or better" is equivalent to odds against chance of 17.3 to 1 for one set using the formula (1-p)/p. The multiple set data from the above table was used to obtain the following odds against chance :
(Number of multiple sets having 8 or more successes out of 10 trials) | Odds Against Chance |
Apr-01 (4 out of 7 sets) | 3651 |
Total Sets (10 out of 95 sets) | 28 |
The group achieved very impressive odds of 3651 to 1 in the first month. However, by the end of the protocol, the odds had fallen to 28 to 1. The issue of beginners luck, in our opinion, needs to be investigated further and may contain many insights concerning precognition. Here are some thoughts on this issue:
Fun to be doing something new
Fear of success
Intellectual chatter
This is very speculative and could easily be interpreted as an excuse for not achieving higher statistical significance in public experiments and applications.
Go to another section of this
issue:
Physics: Can Global Events Affect
Random Number Generators? Intuition:
Individual Intentions Can Affect RNGs"